by Greg Reynolds
Completing a Set of Uncirculated Morgans
A list of dates in the series Morgan silver dollars (1878-1904, 1921) can be easily accessed by anyone, here on the CACG site or in other popular references. Please refer to another discussion on the CACG site for a straightforward explanation of the requirements, which are simple and easy to keep in mind, for a complete set of Morgan silver dollars ‘by date’ (and mint location).
Completing a set of uncirculated (‘Mint State’) Morgans would cost a large sum of money. Further, a gem quality set would cost a fortune. For just a small fraction of the total cost of a gem quality or a Choice Uncirculated set, a collector can assemble a set of selected Very Fine to Extremely Fine (XF) grade Morgan dollars, with Almost Uncirculated (AU) grade representatives of common dates.
Morgans are a Collector-Friendly, Classic U.S. Coin Set
Certainly, this historically important and astonishing series can really be completed for a low cost in the context of sets of classic U.S. coins (1793-1930s). Even though it is unnecessary to learn about the history of Morgan dollars to enjoy collecting them and to complete a set, I hope that collectors will read my discussions here on the CACG site about the history of Morgan dollars, including details about political conflicts and the unusual reasons for very large mintages. Indeed, Morgan dollar production played a key role in an economic catastrophe that almost led to the bankruptcy of the U.S. federal government and forever changed the monetary climate of the nation. Later, Morgan dollar production in 1921 related to the aftermath of World War I.
Even so, no historical knowledge is required, and minimal knowledge is needed to effectively collect Morgan silver dollars. The assembling of a circulated set of Morgans is enjoyable, not difficult, and cost-effective in comparison to other relevant collecting projects. The completion of such a set is not an arbitrary or whimsical objective. In the culture of coin collecting in the United States, quests to assemble sets have been central for more than 150 years and will probably be firmly in the mainstream for decades to come.
Collectors who are not yet ready to take the plunge and commit to building a set may easily acquire a dozen different dates, including representatives of all five mints, for small amounts before deciding whether to complete the whole set. Naturally toned and technically sound VF to XF grade coins are being suggested. Some dates in the series, however, are extremely common. Most survivors of several common dates stem from releases by the government of large quantities of uncirculated Morgan dollars during the second half of the twentieth century.
Very Fine to Extremely Fine Graded Morgans
For example, as more than 100,000 surviving 1882-S Morgans are uncirculated (‘MS’) or nearly so, it may not be practical to acquire a nice VF to XF grade 1882-S. Most 1882-S Morgans never circulated and many of those that did have been relegated to “junk” lots. Dealers can easily acquire quantities of uncirculated (‘MS’) 1882-S Morgans and other very common dates.
For some common dates, it may make sense to include AU to uncirculated examples in a set of VF to XF grade coins. After all, some collectors will not wish to spend months or years searching for a VF or XF grade representative of a very common date if dozens of uncirculated coins can be purchased in days or hours. Generally, a set of mostly VF to XF grade Morgans, with AU to MS grade common dates, may easily be completed in a reasonable amount of time. There are a large number of dealers who actively sell Morgan dollars.
A set of VF-20 to AU-55 grade Morgans is very suitable for a collector on a budget. One of the best examples of a circulated Morgan silver dollar being dramatically less expensive than a gem grade (65 or higher) coin is the 1884-S issue.
Auction Pricing for VF to MS Graded Morgans
On Dec. 31, 2023, Great Collections sold a CACG graded XF-45 1884-S for $191.40. As of Feb. 25, 2024, there are only two CAC approved 1884-S Morgans in uncirculated (‘MS’) grades, one graded MS-67 and one graded MS-68. The CPG retail price estimate for the CAC approved MS-68 grade 1884-S is $1,035,000. The CAC approved MS-67 1884-S, from the Ralph & Lois Stone Collection, realized $735,000 in a Sotheby’s auction in May 2018. On Jan. 11, 2024, Heritage auctioned a PCGS graded MS-63 1884-S, without a CAC sticker, for $34,800. On Dec. 3, 2023, Heritage sold a CAC approved PCGS graded AU-55 coin for $870. For a beginner or someone who is not extremely wealthy, the already mentioned CACG graded XF-45 1884-S, which sold for $191.40, was a ‘better deal’ than higher certified 1884-S Morgans.
While thinking about circulated Morgans being good values for collectors, from a logical perspective, the 1886-O certainly comes to mind. On June 11, 2023, Great Collections sold a CAC approved PCGS graded XF-40 1886-O for $150.69, not including credit card fees if any. Also, that 1886-O is an example of a popular die variation with a “clashed E.”
On July 28, 2022, Legend Auctions sold a PCGS graded MS-64+ 1886-O Morgan, with a CAC sticker, for $32,900. On Nov. 3, 2022, Stack’s Bowers sold an NGC graded MS-63+ 1886-O, with a CAC sticker, for $5280.
On Sept. 21, 2022, Heritage sold a PCGS graded XF-45 1886-O, also with a CAC sticker, for $159. In contrast, on Nov. 18, 2020, Stack’s Bowers auctioned a CAC approved, PCGS certified MS-67 ‘Deep Mirror Proof like’ 1886-O for $780,000, more than 4800 times the price realized of either of the two just cited XF grade 1886-O Morgans.
These public sale prices illustrate the point that, in grades above AU-50, prices for 1886-O silver dollars climb very steeply. CAC has approved one PCGS or NGC graded VF-35 1886-O and CACG has encapsulated one as VF-35, too. The CPG medium retail price estimate for either of these is $84. The CPG retail estimates for Choice to Gem Uncirculated 1886-O Morgans are: $3750 in MS-63, $12,600 in MS-64, and $300,000 in MS-65. Although I acknowledge that I am expressing an opinion here in recommending circulated 1886-O Morgans to collectors who have decided to complete sets of silver dollars, logic and pre-1980 traditions in coin collecting are consistent with my approach.
Certification of XF to MS Morgan Dollars
In regard to a huge ratio between the value of a certified MS-65 grade coin and an XF-40 grade coin of the same date, certified by the same grading service, the 1901 is similar to the 1886-O. In terms of luster, strike, and the overall appearances of the coins, however, the 1886-O and the 1901 are quite different. The theme here relates to collecting projects, scarcity, relative prices and buying strategies, not to the luster and precise characteristics of the coins, which constitute a different topic.
I estimate that the three leading grading services, CAC, NGC and PCGS, have altogether certified more than nine thousand different 1901 silver dollars, just 372 of which have CAC stickers, as of Feb. 29, 2024. In MS-65 grade, the PCGS pop is two and the NGC census is four, just one of which has a CAC sticker. The CPG retail estimate for that one is $480,000.
Twelve NGC or PCGS graded XF-45 1901 Morgans have CAC stickers, and the CPG estimate for one of those is $310. The CAC approved MS-65 grade 1901 is thus estimated to be worth more than 1500 times the value of a CAC approved XF-45 grade 1901.
The 1896-O is also a condition rarity in grades above MS-62 and an extreme condition rarity in the gem range, MS-65 and higher. Yes, it is true that a certified MS-62 1896-O might cost half as much as an 1896-O that was graded MS-63 by the same grading service.
It is relevant that truly uncirculated Morgan dollars that grade from MS-60 to -62 are often characterized by serious contact marks and/or hairlines to the extent that they are very annoying. A certified MS-62 Morgan that is really nice often has some noticeable wear and is thus not strictly uncirculated in a traditional sense. A strictly uncirculated Morgan dollar that was PCGS or NGC graded as MS-62 may have a large number of annoying imperfections.
Market Values of XF to MS Morgan Dollars
Personally, I often find XF-40 to AU-55 grade coins more desirable than many MS-60 to MS-63 grade coins of the same coin issues. For me, this is especially true of Morgan dollars. The high ratios of the market values of an MS-65 or MS-64 grade coin to that of an XF-40 or -45 grade coin of the same date (and mint location) for many Morgans, though, are facts rather than opinions.
The 1879-O is pertinent. In MS-64 and higher grades, the 1879-O is scarce. In MS-66, CAC has approved just eight coins and the CPG value estimate for one of these is $15,600. A non-CAC certified MS-66 grade coin would not cost that much, though would still command far more than a circulated 1879-O. On Sept. 14, 2023, Heritage sold a PCGS graded MS-66 1879-O, without a CAC sticker, for $8700.
On Feb. 12, 2024, Great Collections sold a CAC approved, PCGS graded AU-58 1879-O for $159.50. As of Feb. 25, 2024, there are no 1879-O Morgans that are CAC approved or CACG graded between Good-04 and XF-45. If there was a CAC XF-45 1879-O, it would probably have a retail value of less than $85. On July 21, 2023, Heritage sold a PCGS graded MS-65+ 1879-O Morgan, with a CAC sticker, for $4440, more than fifty times the estimated value of an XF-45 grade coin, if one was certified by CAC. PCGS reports 260 and the NGC census is 116 1879-O Morgans as having been graded XF-45. There must be at least fifteen different currently non-CAC 1879-O Morgans that would qualify at CAC for an XF-45 grade, if submitted in the future.
The 1880-O is even more of a condition rarity in grades above MS-62 than the 1879-O, and the 1880-O is extremely common in grades below AU-50. Indeed, VF to XF-40 grade 1880-O Morgans are so common that it is not usually worthwhile for dealers to pay fees and shipping charges to have them certified.
On Aug. 24, 2022, Heritage auctioned a PCGS graded MS-65+ 1880-O, with a CAC sticker, for $25,200. On June 7, 2023, Heritage sold a CAC approved AU-58 grade 1880-O for $129. If a CAC stickered or CACG graded XF-45 1880-O emerges in 2024, it would probably sell for an amount between $50 and $100.
The 1883-S is not nearly as much of a condition rarity in grades above MS-63 as the 1884-S though is scarcer than the 1880-O in that range. For many interested collectors, an XF grade 1883-S would be a much more cost-effective acquisition than a MS-65 or MS-64 grade 1883-S.
On Jan. 12, 2024, Heritage auctioned an NGC graded MS-65 1883-S realized $13,200. On Dec. 10, 2023, a CAC approved, PCGS graded MS-64 1883-S realized $6132.50. On April 16, 2023, the firm of David Lawrence sold a CAC approved, PCGS graded AU-50 1883-S for $300. I hypothesize that there are a significant number of 1883-S Morgans that would qualify at CAC for grades in the VF-30 to XF-45 ranges, though no one has submitted any of those yet. If they were submitted and CACG graded in the VF to XF range, some might plausibly sell for less than $100 each. It is realistic to expect that circulated 1883-S and 1884-S Morgans will be submitted to CACG in the future.
Auction Prices and Market Values Continued
Although the 1889-CC is a leading condition rarity in grades above MS-64, possibly the leading condition rarity, it is not in the same category as the 1884-S as the 1889-CC is relatively scarce in all grades. After the 1893-S, the 1889-CC is the scarcest business strike Morgan silver dollar. Even an 1889-CC in Good-04 grade is likely to sell for more than $800.
CPG-CAC medium retail estimates for an 1889-CC are $2370 in VF-20 grade, $2850 in VF-30, $5450 in XF-40, $11,200 in AU-50, $54,000 in MS-63, and $331,000 in MS-65. A point that is immediately noticeable is that the guide value for an AU-50 grade 1889-CC is twice as much as that for an XF-40 grade 1889-CC. In my experience, a certified AU-50 grade semi-key Morgan is far more likely to have been noticeably dipped in an acidic solution than a certified XF-40 grade coin of the same date. A budget-minded collector may wish to search for an attractive, naturally toned XF-40 or VF grade 1889-CC rather than spending a vastly greater amount for a higher certified coin.
Indisputably, the 1893-S is the ‘key date’ business strike of the series. If a Liberty Seated silver dollar or a Draped Bust silver dollar had the same population and grade distribution, it would not be considered all that rare or all that important. Nevertheless, more than twelve thousand people collect Morgan dollars ‘by date,’ and any relatively scarce Morgan dollar is subject to intense competition among collectors. Curiously, the older sister of the 1893-S, the 1892-S is an extreme condition rarity in gem grades yet not nearly as scarce as the 1893-S in XF grades. On April 23, 2023, the firm of David Lawrence sold a CAC approved, NGC graded XF-45 1892-S for $825.
On May 29, 2022, GreatCollections sold a CAC approved, PCGS graded XF-40 1893-S for $13,392.50. In comparison, on Jan. 11, 2024, Heritage auctioned a CAC approved, PCGS graded MS-63 1893-S for $444,000. Even though I would feel compelled to see both coins before making a decision, a preliminary determination is that the just cited XF-40 grade 1893-S is a much better price value for a budget minded collector than the certified MS-63 grade 1893-S that brought $444,000.
The 1895-O and the 1895-S are especially relevant to this discussion as they cost large amounts in MS-65 and MS-66 grades, though are dramatically less expensive in VF-20 to XF-45 grades. Indeed, the 1895-O is an extreme condition rarity.
In May 2018, Sotheby’s auctioned a PCGS graded MS-65 1895-O, without a CAC sticker, for $225,000, which was in the Ralph and Lois Stone Collection. In August 2018, Stack’s Bowers auctioned a PCGS graded MS-66 1895-O, also without a CAC sticker, for $336,000. On Nov. 12, 2020, Stack’s Bowers auctioned a CAC approved, PCGS graded MS-67 1895-O for $528,000. I viewed lots for all three of these auctions and attended the two before the pandemic. There was a tremendous amount of interest in gem quality 1895-O Morgans, though circulated 1895-O Morgans are popular.
CPG Estimation of 1895-O Morgan Dollar in Comparison
On March 5, 2023, GreatCollections sold a CAC approved XF-45 grade 1895-O Morgan for about $1326. On Feb. 15, 2023, Stack’s Bowers sold a CAC approved VF-25 grade 1895-O for $432. This is not the most stunning Morgan imaginable. Even so, a collector who learns that a certified MS-66 grade 1895-O might easily be worth $432,000 in the spring of 2024 might be happy to pay $432 for this one.
A MS-65 grade 1895-S is not worth a vast fortune, only a fraction of the value of a similar quality 1895-O. In all grades, however, the 1895-S is scarcer than the 1895-O. In XF-45 grade, CAC has stickered more than two and a half times as many 1895-O Morgans as 1895-S Morgans, 85 to 23, as of Feb. 28, 2024. The CPG medium retail estimate is just about twice as high, $2370 for an XF-45 grade 1895-S and $1190 for an XF-45 grade 1895-O. In XF-40 grade, CAC has stickered fifty PCGS or NGC graded 1895-O Morgans and thirty 1895-S Morgans.
For coins grading from VF-20 to XF-45, CAC approved 1895-S Morgans are CPG estimated to be worth around twice as much as equivalent CAC approved 1895-O Morgans. In MS-63 grade, however, an 1895-S might be worth less one-fifth as much as an equivalent 1895-O. While a CAC approved MS-63 grade 1895-S is worth four or five times as much as an XF-40 grade 1895-S, the CPG reference estimates that a CAC approved MS-63 grade 1895-O is worth more than fifty times as much as a CAC approved XF-40 grade 1895-O.
Of course, for both the 1895-O and the 1895-S, a CAC approved VF to XF grade coin is much less costly than a coin of the same date with a certified MS-63 for higher grade. An immediate point is that collectors should think about their own perspectives on the values of condition rarities. Many appealing circulated coins can be found of dates that are very rare in grades in Choice (MS-63 and up) or Gem Uncirculated (MS-65 and higher) grade ranges.
A collector who reads the retail price estimates for uncirculated (‘MS’) Morgans in the CPG guide or in other price references, might figure that a complete set of Morgans would cost a vast fortune. A collector who looks instead at the value estimates for VF to XF grade Morgans will realize that the costs of the key 1893-S, the semi-keys and many condition rarities are just fractions of the values of the same respective coins in MS-63 and higher grades.
In regards to VF to XF grade Morgans, I recommend seeking coins with natural toning, especially mellow gray, russet-gray, pearl gray, mild russet, brown-russet, medium green, apricot, and pale blue colors. Each collector, though, should learn and make his or her own decisions. A collecting strategy should depend in part on the personality of the respective collector.
Images are courtesy of www.GreatCollections.com of Irvine, CA and Stack’s Bowers Galleries of Costa Mesa, CA (www.stacksbowers.com).
Copyright © 2024 Greg Reynolds
About the Author
Greg is a professional numismatist and researcher, having written more than 775 articles published in ten different publications relating to coins, patterns, and medals. He has won awards for analyses, interpretation of rarity, historical research, and critiques. In 2002 and again in 2023, Reynolds was the sole winner of the Numismatic Literary Guild (NLG) award for “Best All-Around Portfolio”.
Greg has carefully examined thousands of truly rare and conditionally rare classic U.S. coins, including a majority of the most famous rarities. He is also an expert in British coins. He is available for private consultations.
Email: Insightful10@gmail.com
Suggested Articles
